On June 8 a master class was held by Abel Aghanbegyan, a Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the DFB Chair at the Department of Finance and Banking, on “How to “jump” from crisis to growth.”
The crisis caused by the pandemic has led to salary cuts for the majority of the population. 63% of the Russian population has no safety cushions – they have no means to live in this situation. In turn, employers have a situation when they have no means to pay their salaries.
Stagnation in Russia has been going on since 2013, having reduced all key figures. The crisis that is happening now can be called, above all, social. According to the speaker, GDP will decline by 6-8%, which matches the forecasts of the Accounts Chamber. At the same time, unemployment will jump from 4 million to 7-10 million people, while real incomes will drop by 8-10%. Negative trends will continue, but fundamental measures and enormous resources are needed to overcome the crisis and stagnation.
“Crisis gives a unique chance, it contains an intra-crisis rebound mechanism for economic growth; we need to make a technological breakthrough in order to grow. We are talking about aviation industry, synthetic chemistry, computer production, etc. Enterprises should be interested in investing in their own development.”
- noted Mr. Aghanbegyan.
Conditions need to be created for investment in human capital and socio-economic growth. Abel Aghanbegyan believes that the following 3 points should be fulfilled for this purpose:
- Government guaranteed project financing
- Increased investment in housing construction
- Social and regional reforms – transfer to self-financing, self-governance and self-sustainability
“We have great opportunities to jump over stagnation and revive the social and economic growth we have already missed,”
- summed up Mr. Aghanbegyan.